Inflation LOWER Than Expected: August Rate Rise Unlikely

07/31/24 • 26 min

We deep dive into the latest inflation data moments after its release.
Trimmed mean inflation, the RBA’s preferred measure of inflation, came in at 0.8% for the June Quarter. Headline inflation came in at 1%, up 3.8% for the year.
Making up this inflation data:
⭐ ‘Non tradables inflation’ came in at 5%, unchanged from last quarter. This shows domestic based inflation pressures are now driving inflation.
⭐ Goods inflation both ticked up a bit to 3.2% for the year
⭐ Services inflation came in higher at 4.5%.
What does this mean for interest rates?
⭐ While this print does not rule anything in or out, it’s unlikely to drive an interest rate increase next month.
Overall this is encouraging news for mortgage holders. This data set was perceived as ‘dangerous’.
If it came in above expectations, there was a high chance it could drive a rate rise. This print is more than likely going to continue the ‘holding pattern’ the Reserve Bank of Australia are currently in.
The AUD fell on the news, and the share market went up - indicating traders will pare back bets on any rate rise next week.
Encouragingly, lead data on HOUSING, which makes up 22% of the CPI basket, shows positive signs to future CPI releases. Both asking rents and construction costs are rising at a slower rate. This should put downward pressure on future inflation data.

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Previous Episode

What Type of Investor Are You? Insights from 1000s of Investors

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Property Investing is all about YOU. So what type of investor are you?
We try to help provide clarity, by sharing our experiences working with 1000s of property investors over the past 10 years.
We categorise each investor group with:
1. What is your goal?
2. What mindset do you have to investing?
3. What Finance strategy suits you?
4. What type of property investing suits you?
5. How do you time your investments?
6. How often are you looking for investments?
We summarise with 3 categories:
1. Wealth Investors: Those looking to translate their savings into investments and build wealth over time. Safe, secure, step by step investing. This is 80-90% of all property investors
2. The opportunity investors: Those that use their income stream to accelerate their wealth creation. They are focused on growing their portfolio and are willing to take on more risk to do it.
3. The advanced investor: Those that are ALWAYS investing and don't want to hold cash, but would rather have riskier investments.
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https://www.propertychat.com.au/community/threads/what-type-of-property-investor-are-you.79076/

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Next Episode

Sydney Property Market Update: What's Happening Right Now

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We deep dive into the current Sydney market and talk through the slower winter period.
In summary:
1. The energy is back heading into Spring season.
2. The affordable markets of Sydney are doing very well
3. Price growth is decent in cheaper markets, while weak in more expensive markets.
The interest rate certainty that has come to the marketplace has helped add some confidence for the Spring Selling Season.
#investing #sydneypropertymarket

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