Analysis

Is there a better way to heal political divides - through panels of ordinary citizens? Sonia Sodha asks if the idea of citizens' assemblies, which have been used around the world to come up with solutions to polarising issues. Proponents argue that they avoid the risks of knee-jerk legislation, winner-takes-all outcomes or the pull of populism. Many in the Republic of Ireland believe that deliberative democracy was crucial in reforming the law on abortion without causing major political upheavals. Could this method still come up with a better way forward for Brexit? Producer: Maire Devine

Paul Johnson, the director of the widely-respected independent Institute for Fiscal Studies, has been looking at the latest projections for how much the government will spend in the next five years and how much revenue it will receive. Despite the recent announcement of further cuts in spending, tax rises look difficult to avoid.

Paul explores the reasons for this gap in the budget and asks what taxes could help to fill it. With tax avoidance and evasion now at the top of world leaders' agendas, he asks if the increasingly tax-averse companies sector can be made to pay more and how much the rich and wealthy could contribute. He also considers the taxation of our houses and pensions and whether more will be taken from them.

Then he focuses on the three levies which contribute the lion's share of government revenue - income tax, national insurance and VAT - and, with politicians, economists and tax experts, finds out how much we are all - young and old, better and worse off - likely to pay. He also drops in on a young family in Norfolk to discover what taxpaying voters think of the choices and what they will be expected to pay.

Among those taking part: Nigel Lawson (former Conservative Chancellor of the Exchequer); Kitty Ussher (former Labour Treasury minister); Bill Dodwell (head of tax policy at Deloitte); Julian McCrae (former top Treasury official now at the Institute for Government); Gavin Kelly (chief executive of the Resolution Foundation who worked during the Blair/Brown years in Downing Street and the Treasury); and Malcolm Gammie QC (a leading tax lawyer).

Producer Simon Coates.

As tax rises hit pay packets next month is this an end to traditional Conservative low tax policy? The UK government has so far defied calls from across the political spectrum to shelve the planned 1.25 per cent increase in National Insurance, despite millions of households grappling with a rising cost of living at a time of great economic uncertainty as war rages in Ukraine. A greater proportion of the nation’s income will go to the taxman than at any point since the 1950s. Yet Brexit was billed by some as the UK’s chance to go it alone and create its own economic model, a “Singapore on Thames” – a low tax, light touch economy to attract outside investment. Instead, corporation tax is to increase from 19 percent to 25 per cent by 2023, while a new £12 billion annual levy to fund the NHS and social care comes in from April, initially in the form of higher national insurance payments. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has broken his election manifesto pledge not to raise such taxes to meet, he argues, the cost of supporting the economy through the pandemic. His chancellor hopes this will permit future tax cuts. But with policy priorities such as levelling up and a transition to net zero, and the realities of an ageing population, BBC Economics Correspondent Dharshini David asks whether we're seeing a fundamental shift in traditional Conservative low tax philosophy and whether that's a temporary choice - or an unavoidable permanent reorientation? Guests: Sir John Redwood MP Sir Charlie Bean, professor of economics at the London School of Economics and Political Science Lord Nick Macpherson, former permanent secretary to the Treasury Dame DeAnne Julius, distinguished fellow, Chatham House Dr Jill Rutter, senior fellow, The Institute of Government

Producer: Caroline Bayley Production Coordinators: Maria Ogundele and Jacqui Johnson Sound: Graham Puddifoot Editor: Hugh Levinson

In popular imagination, being in a crowd makes people scary and irrational. But is this true? In this edition of Analysis, David Edmonds asks social psychologists - including a leading expert on groups, Steve Reicher - about the psychology of crowds. This is far more than merely a theoretical matter. It has profound implications for how we police crowds.

As China changes leadership, Mukul Devichand probes Beijing's hidden battle of ideas. Unlike the messy democracy of elections in the US or Europe, the Communist Party's "changing of the guard" this autumn is set to be a sombre, orderly and very Chinese affair. But the dramatic sacking of a top Party boss over the alleged murder of an Englishman earlier this year was about more than just a personal power struggle. These events provide a window into a deeper, more ideological battle for the future of the world's new superpower.

This week, Mukul Devichand travels to the People's Republic of China for a unique look at the social and ideological faultlines in the country. Radio 4's Analysis programme has a 40-year history of looking at the deeper ideas and trends shaping politics -- and this week's programme takes that approach on the road to a rising superpower whose policy debates are largely misunderstood in the West, despite the profound implications of China's future direction for our own.

Recent years have seen large-scale social experiments in China and the emergence of a "New Left" school of thought to rival the pro-market "New Right" in Chinese intellectual life. Mukul Devichand looks at what these scholars and officials are reading, and the ideas that shape their vision of the world. He looks at how these schools of ideas have created their own showcase provinces and cities -- Chongqing vs Guangdong -- and looks at recent events for clues about where China will go next.

Contributors:

Mark Leonard Director, European Council on Foreign Relations Author, What Does China Think?

John Garnaut China correspondent, Sydney Morning Herald and Melbourne Age

Zhang Jian Professor of Political Science, Peking University

Daniel Bell Professor of Political Theory, Tsinghua University and Jiaotong University

Pan Wei Director, Center for Chinese & Global Affairs. Peking University

Producer: Lucy Proctor.