343: K-Shaped Recovery, Inflated, How Money & Debt Built the American Dream by R. Christopher Whalen
08/28/20 • 42 min
Jason Hartman talks about the K-Shaped recovery. Are we moving to a smaller economy? Can Biden kill the 1031 exchange, and use those tax funds elsewhere? How will this impact every aspect of real estate surrounding investor deals?
Jason interviews Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors LLC, R. Christopher Whalen. Whalen speaks on location changes of people and businesses due to Coronavirus. Not only are business locations changing, but companies have been forced to move away from the “old way” of doing business and finally adapting to innovations in technology and communication. Whalen also gives a glimpse into his recent book and discusses the fed’s strategy to steer clear of deflationary times. Will we see consequences from the creation of money and bailouts?
Books: Inflated, How Money & Debt Built the American Dream by R. Christopher Whalen
Key Takeaways:
[1:00] Jason talks about the recovery shapes: are we moving into a smaller economy?
[5:00] Businesses going virtual.
[9:20] Biden wants to kill the 1031 exchange.
[15:00] Could Biden use the elimination of the 1031 exchange as a way of embarrassing Trump?
R. Christopher Whalen
[21:00] Not only are people leaving big cities, like NYC, because of COVID-19, but large companies are also looking to move so that they can relocate the people that work within them.
[23:30] Coronavirus has forced businesses to move out of “the old way.”
[27:50] A brief history of banking, from Abraham Lincoln to present.
[30:20] Before the creation of The Fed, J.P. Morgan was essentially the central bank.
[32:00] Whalen breaks down how he differentiates between inflated as he puts it and inflation.
[37:15] Will we see any consequences from the creation of money and bailouts?
[38:00] Quantitative Easing: central banks buy government bonds or other financial assets to inject money into the economy to expand its activity.
Websites:
www.JasonHartman.com/properties
Jason Hartman PropertyCast (Libsyn)
Jason Hartman PropertyCast (iTunes)
1-800-HARTMAN
Jason Hartman talks about the K-Shaped recovery. Are we moving to a smaller economy? Can Biden kill the 1031 exchange, and use those tax funds elsewhere? How will this impact every aspect of real estate surrounding investor deals?
Jason interviews Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors LLC, R. Christopher Whalen. Whalen speaks on location changes of people and businesses due to Coronavirus. Not only are business locations changing, but companies have been forced to move away from the “old way” of doing business and finally adapting to innovations in technology and communication. Whalen also gives a glimpse into his recent book and discusses the fed’s strategy to steer clear of deflationary times. Will we see consequences from the creation of money and bailouts?
Books: Inflated, How Money & Debt Built the American Dream by R. Christopher Whalen
Key Takeaways:
[1:00] Jason talks about the recovery shapes: are we moving into a smaller economy?
[5:00] Businesses going virtual.
[9:20] Biden wants to kill the 1031 exchange.
[15:00] Could Biden use the elimination of the 1031 exchange as a way of embarrassing Trump?
R. Christopher Whalen
[21:00] Not only are people leaving big cities, like NYC, because of COVID-19, but large companies are also looking to move so that they can relocate the people that work within them.
[23:30] Coronavirus has forced businesses to move out of “the old way.”
[27:50] A brief history of banking, from Abraham Lincoln to present.
[30:20] Before the creation of The Fed, J.P. Morgan was essentially the central bank.
[32:00] Whalen breaks down how he differentiates between inflated as he puts it and inflation.
[37:15] Will we see any consequences from the creation of money and bailouts?
[38:00] Quantitative Easing: central banks buy government bonds or other financial assets to inject money into the economy to expand its activity.
Websites:
www.JasonHartman.com/properties
Jason Hartman PropertyCast (Libsyn)
Jason Hartman PropertyCast (iTunes)
1-800-HARTMAN
Previous Episode
342: Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist of the California Association of Realtors CAR
Jason Hartman speaks with Leslie Appleton-Young, vice-president and chief economist for the California Association of Realtors. Leslie brings several charts and graphs to the conversation to share some staggering movement in California's real estate. In January, 2020 was shaping up to be a knock out year, but due to the Coronavirus pandemic, we are now looking at best for a quick recovery. Leslie and Jason draw correlations between the 2008 recession and recovery to the recent, seemingly, self-imposed recession.
As well, Leslie shares data to support buyer/seller trends as emotions shift from the COVID-19 impact. The question continues to go unanswered, how will malls, retail space, and hotels change post coronavirus?
Key Takeaways:
[7:30] Jason and Leslie discuss predictions based on the Q2 hit in 2020, ranging from a 25% - 42% decline.
[9:00] The buy-side of real estate is doing well, likely because of record low interest rates, more space needed for home offices, and more space desired in quarantine times.
[15:30] In January, the 2020 expectation was to be a great year based on some standard metrics.
[16:20] We have not had a breakout market since the 2008 recession due to income and affordability restraints.
[19:00] The virus and the government's response are two major contributing factors to set the tone for sellers and the recovery of the real estate market.
[20:15] What is the general tone of California, are people staying or going?
[24:45] We've seen a considerable adaptation of technology in the real estate industry.
[30:00] Buyers feel a sense of urgency without expecting deals, while sellers are reluctant to lower their prices.
[35:30] Jason and Leslie discuss the lack of supply and the building restrictions as one of the leading causes for a reduced amount of new homes being built.
[38:00] How could malls, retail space, and hotels change into residential units for affordable housing, senior centers, or homeless shelters?
[40:30] What shape will the recovery take on? V, square root, swoosh, or W?
[43:00] The work-from-home order will likely be huge for housing.
Websites:
Next Episode
344: Brian Adams - Inflation, Commercial Real Estate, Demographics
Founder of Excelsior Capital, Brian Adams joins Jason Hartman today to discuss everything from millennials moving to the suburbs to the office market and how it’s changing post-pandemic. Public transportation is likely to continue its trend downward as the car will regain popularity in need for social distancing and health.
Key Takeaways:
[2:30] Millennials, it’s not all Brooklynn bars and avocado toast, now they are trending towards suburban areas.
[7:00] Speaking on the logistical challenges of a vaccine for COVID-19
[9:15] What do you see for the office property market?
[11:30] Suburban offices have a better chance of surviving the pandemic than high-density urban areas.
[14:15] Companies moving more towards mothership and hub and spoke models.
[15:15] Are any new deals going on in the office market?
[16:00] How far through this pandemic do you think we are?
[17:20] The fed and congress have been flooding the capital market system with liquidity.
[21:45] Will the development of tech push non-techies into a need for UBI?
[22:25] Discussing office reuse.
[25:45] Inflation will more than likely hit back.
[27:00] While the supply chain might be lacking, the price of construction seems to be substantially lower.
Websites:
LinkedIn: Brian C. Adams
www.JasonHartman.com/properties
Jason Hartman PropertyCast (Libsyn)
Jason Hartman PropertyCast (iTunes)
1-800-HARTMAN
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