Talking Feds

It was a week in which Donald Trump was pummeled from all corners of the legal system, starting with an FBI search of his Mar-A-Lago residence. The feds acted after learning that Trump and his circle had failed to return hugely sensitive documents that he improperly took from the White House and was continuing to conceal. A banner set of guests–Aaron Blake, Alexi McCammond, and Andrew Weissmann—join Harry to analyze the seismic events and assess their potential for future criminal culpability.

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An episode with a somewhat longer vantage point than our normal fare, w/ a matching thoughtful panel of David French, Susan Glasser, & Jonah Goldberg. We begin with a clear-eyed & sober look at the prediction by a noted political scientist that the Trump presidency is becoming more and more likely. From there, we turn to McCarthy’s calling it quits and Johnson’s latest kissing of Trump’s ring. We then delve into the debacle of the university presidents’ testimony, and the lessons it presents.

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Harry talks with Michael Podhorzer, founder of the Analyst Institute and perhaps the foremost student in the country of the true utility and disutility of political polls. Podhorzer explains the critical difference between two types of “undecided” voters the polls lump together – those (very very rare) votes still uncertain whom to vote for and those (much more common) voters who may or may not vote but know whom they would vote for. The difference has key implications for the state of the race, the best strategies for the campaign, and the right and wrong ways to interpret polls. The distinction also helps explain Trump’s steadfast refusal to expand or soften his autocratic extreme MAGA message. Podhorzer also explains the modeling he has done of the 2024 electorate based on vote history and behavior. A rich discussion and an effective antidote to the “Mad Poll Disease” that so many of us have as the election approaches.

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In a special 1-on-1 taped before a live audience as part of the Talking San Diego series (www.talkingsandiego.net) , Harry sits down with Congressman Jamie Raskin to discuss a theory of Second Amendment rights that has proliferated in recent years, including support by elected officials such as Matt Gaetz. That is an insurrectionary theory according to which the Constitution protects the right of the people to keep and bear arms in order to use them against their own government when they perceive the government has become tyrannical. Raskin completely shreds the theory as a matter of history, text, and constitutional structure. He concludes that “the real Constitution rejects the right wing fantasy that random banks of disgruntled armed citizens can claim the powers of the constitutional militia.”

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