SPECIAL EPISODE: Now What? 2023 Economic Outlook

Description: In this special edition episode, we welcome Dr. Chris Kuehl, expert economist, on the show to touch on the 2023 economic outlook. He addresses what the key leading indicators are telling us, the outlook for the market segments most important to your industry, and what you should consider as you begin your 3, 5, and 7-year planning.

Key Takeaways:

1. We're moving more towards self-service and automation. We're looking for anything that can be done with a machine, even though it means more of an investment.
2. Much of inflation is driven by the fact that wages have gone up. Wages have gone up on average by around 6%. Part of the reason for that is mass retirement.
3. The number one way that companies are hiring now is by poaching each other. So you've got to protect your own staff from being poached.

Let's Connect:

[email protected]

Chris' LinkedIn Profile

Transcript

Transcripts are computer generated -- not 100% accurate word-for-word.

INTRO | 00:00:00:02 - 00:00:23:03

Hello, hello, everybody, and welcome to 30 minute THRIVE, your go-to podcast for anything and everything HR, powered by MRA - The Management Association. Looking to stay on top of the ever-changing world of HR? MRA has got you covered. We'll be the first to tell you what's hot and what's not. I'm your host, Sophie Boler, and we are so glad you're here. Now, it's time to thrive.

Sophie Boler | 00:00:26:00 - 00:00:53:14

Hello, everybody, and welcome to this episode of 30 minute THRIVE. Today is a special one because we're joined with Dr. Chris Kuehl. He's an expert economist and Director of Armada Corporate Intelligence. He's a frequent speaker on economic issues in the US and globally, and he's spoken at a bunch of different conferences devoted to manufacturing, logistics, finance, credit, retail, accounting, and many others.

Sophie Boler | 00:00:53:21 - 00:01:20:08

So overall, his specialties include corporate and competitive intelligence, strategy, development, international market analysis and market development, and economic trending. So, Chris, I know you just got done speaking at our fall-featured event on the 2023 Economic Outlook. So thank you so much for joining us today and taking the time to spend it with us and share your expertise and knowledge on this topic.

Sophie Boler | 00:01:20:08 - 00:01:28:20

But let's dive right in with the first question. So if there is one economic impact business leaders should be looking at, what is that one thing?

Chris Kuehl | 00:01:29:03 - 00:01:54:06

It's probably the percentage of concern over whether there will be a recession or not, because we're kind of on the edge of going either direction. We could go into a downturn, come next year or we can kind of avoid it. It's going to depend a lot on how the consumer handles their extra savings. They've still got about $3.5, $3.6 trillion in excess savings, which they could spend this year.

Chris Kuehl | 00:01:54:17 - 00:02:14:13

If they do, then we basically spend our way out of the recession. If they don't, and they hang on to it for next year because they're worried about next year, then we could see more of a downturn. So really, it comes down to how realistic is the notion of a serious downturn; how bad is inflation going to be or continue to be?

Chris Kuehl | 00:02:14:23 - 00:02:19:09

And then from the audience that you've crushed, like, what does this mean to employment?

Sophie Boler | 00:02:19:16 - 00:02:33:14

Absolutely. And kind of switching gears a little bit, we know that we lost 21 million workers last year due to retirement. So how is this and the labor shortage just in general really affecting the economy?

Chris Kuehl | 00:02:33:15 - 00:02:50:13

Hugely. I mean, if you look at what's going on with inflation right now, a lot of it is driven by the fact that wages have gone up. Wages have gone up on average around 6 percent. Part of the reason for that is that you've had that mass retirement. You have a lot fewer workers in the system than we used to.

Chris Kuehl | 00:02:50:13 - 00:03:13:04

The baby boomer kind of protected us from that for a while because the boomer was reluctant to retire. But now they are. And we hit retirement at the rate of about 10,000 a day. So it's taken a toll. The workers never had more leverage. Anybody in HR is well aware of that now. They're asking for more money; they're asking for better benefits.

Chris Kuehl | 00:03:13:04 - 00:03:23:22

They want more flexible schedules. All of that becomes a challenge. And then you just look at the impact from...