Narativ with Zev Shalev (Audio)

The parallels between 2024 and 2016 are striking and impossible to ignore:

• Trump as the Candidate: Donald Trump is the Republican nominee, and that entails unprecedented support from Russia.
• Female Democratic Nominee: Like Hillary Clinton in 2016, Kamala Harris faces unique challenges as a woman running for the highest office.
• Tight Polls in Battleground States: We're seeing razor-thin margins in key states, reminiscent of the nail-biting finish in 2016.
• Disinformation Campaigns: As I noted in yesterday's show, we're facing an "onslaught of disinformation" that eerily mirrors the 2016 landscape.

Green Shoots in the Data

I asked Carl Allen, author of "The Polls Weren't Wrong," how he viewed the two elections on last night’s show. Allen says his 2024 forecast is not as close as other analysts’, putting Kamala Harris in a far more advantageous polling position than Hillary Clinton was in 2016.

Here are some of the "green shoots" that Carl sees in the data.

1. Closer to 50%: Allen points out that Harris is polling closer to the crucial 50% mark in critical states, which he argues is more important than lead size.
2. Fewer Undecideds: Unlike 2016, there are fewer undecided voters this time around, potentially reducing last-minute swings.
3. Fewer Third-Party Candidates: The 2024 race has fewer prominent third-party candidates, simplifying the electoral math.

Allen emphasizes that Harris's chances are better than a toss-up, albeit just barely. He puts her probability of winning at about 66%, adding, "A 34 or one in three chance that Trump wins doesn't let me sleep well at night."

He also calls 2016 an outlier election that shouldn’t be viewed as very predictive. While this offers some cautious optimism, it reminds me that everything about this election, like 2016, is abnormal.

2024’s Wild Cards

Trump's strategy in 2024, like 2016 “is asymmetrical. Instead of running an on-message campaign, he's running an absolute onslaught of disinformation."

His alliance with X’s Elon Musk is an unprecedented national security crisis connecting the GOP nominee to a known Russian disinformation agent who has the most prominent news app in the world at his disposal to spread disinformation.

There are legitimate concerns about foreign actors like Bibi Netanyahu, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin attempting to sway the election by inventing or heightening international crises.

The Specter of Violence: The implicit threat of violence if Trump doesn’t win echoes the 2020 election.

Biden Sounds The Alarm

The gravity of the disinformation threat was underscored today by President Biden himself. In response to false claims about hurricane relief efforts, Biden condemned what he called "a reckless, irresponsible, relentless promotion of disinformation and outright lies."

Biden explicitly named Trump, stating he "has led the onslaught of lies." echoing the "onslaught of disinformation" referred to in yesterday's show.

Carl Allen’s book “The Polls Weren’t Wrong” brings an exciting new perspective to our understanding of polls and helps us be more precise about forecasting results, especially during unprecedented unpredictability.

What do you think about the parallels and differences between 2016 and 2024? Please reply in the comments below.

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This episode of the Narativ podcast focuses on the breaking news that Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny has been murdered, presumably by Vladimir Putin. Navalny's widow, Yuliya Navalnaya, spoke at the Munich Security Conference shortly after his death, calling for Putin and his regime to face justice.

Key Topics Discussed:

• Yuliya Navalnaya's emotional speech at the Munich Security Conference, saying Putin should be punished for Navalny's murder
• Putin's obsession with interfering in US politics to get Trump elected again in 2024
• How the timing of Navalny's murder was meant to send a message to NATO right before the Munich Conference
• Putin lying about supporting Biden for president as more disinformation
• Analysis of how GOP House Speaker Mike Johnson's actions align with Putin's interests regarding Ukraine aid
• Discussion of how the enemies of democracy like Putin seem to be coordinating to weaken American power
• A look ahead at how conflict hotspots like Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel could impact the 2024 election

Guest:

Rick Petrie from the Council on Foreign Relations provides expert analysis on geopolitics and Vladimir Putin's motives.

Key Quotes:

"It's further proof that this is a very hard dictatorial regime...They have taken the opportunity to murder someone who is probably the most effective opposition spokesperson and revealer of Putin's nepotism and corruption in a generation."

"Ukraine has been the bellwether for Trump and his fealty towards Putin...And he's still very desperate to deliver on that. And it's very dangerous for us as a country, for NATO as an alliance, and for Western democracy."

Conclusion:

This sobering episode focused on Putin's tyranny domestically and in trying to influence world affairs. The murder of Navalny represents a significant escalation and assault on voices of dissent and democracy advocates in Russia. The discussion highlights why opposing Putin's aggression must be a top priority as America heads into the 2024 election.

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Attorney John Anthony Castro is on a bold mission that could rock American politics - using an obscure constitutional clause to legally disqualify Donald Trump from running for president in 2024.

Castro's ingenious strategy centers on the 14th Amendment's anti-insurrection section, which bars anyone involved in rebellion against the U.S. from holding office. His argument: Trump's role in inciting the January 6th Capitol attack crosses that line.

But this unprecedented legal gambit faces major hurdles. Courts have dismissed similar voter-driven lawsuits for lack of "standing." As a direct Trump opponent, Castro asserts his injury gives him grounds to sue.

If the case proceeds, the next question is whether the clause is "self-executing" - enforceable without further congressional action. A ruling in Castro's favor could be a massive leap toward barring Trump's candidacy.

Yet the most significant obstacle may be proving an actual "insurrection" occurred on January 6th - a hotly disputed issue with massive political stakes.

Win or lose, Castro's lawsuit puts a little-known constitutional provision under a glaring spotlight. By challenging Trump, he gained media attention for his future presidential aspirations.

The outcome of this bold legal fight is uncertain. But one thing is clear - Castro's ingenious move could set a precedent with lasting effects on American politics and elections. His quest marks an unprecedented attempt to employ the courts to reshape the political landscape.

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Trump, the proverbial Trojan horse for global adversaries, remains a daunting threat to our democracy. Brace yourself for an intense journey as we delve into his dark machinations - from the shocking revelations about Enrique Tarrio's 22-year sentence for his role in the January 6th assault on the US Capitol to the unnerving investigations against Roger Stone and Peter Navarro's contempt of Congress. The chilling reality of Trump's alliance with world adversaries, hell-bent on world domination, will leave you questioning the very foundations of our political landscape.

We don't stop there. The specter of Trump running for president in 2024 and the potential for a catastrophic coup post-election looms ominously. Matt Gaetz's warning of potential bloodshed is unsettling, to say the least. Yet, the disqualification under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment could be the silver lining we seek. As we unravel these complex issues, we push the boundaries of conventional discourse and explore the legal implications of the 14th Amendment on Trump's eligibility. Uncover with us a fresh perspective on how Congressional determination of insurrection could render a guilty verdict unnecessary, potentially saving us from a terrifying dystopian future.

(0:00:00) - Trump's Threat to Democracy

(0:09:21) - Risks of Trump's Potential Power Consolidation

(0:16:41) - Trump's Ineligibility for Future Office

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In this episode, we delve into how artificial intelligence and notable property developers orchestrate a massive wealth transfer disguised by political chaos and market manipulations. Host Zev Shalev converses with James M. Nelson, author of 'The New Landlord: Powered by Big Data and Artificial Intelligence,' about the DOJ's investigation into alleged price-fixing by corporate landlords using AI platforms like RealPage. They explore the impacts of these practices on housing costs, homelessness, and the American Dream, spotlighting influential figures like Harlan Crow and Jared Kushner. Nelson's research unveils a systematic effort to manipulate housing markets, creating a stark contrast between wealthy elites and the struggling middle class.

Thank you, James M. Nelson, for sharing your soon-to-be-published book with Narativ. You can learn more about James at https://jamesmartinnelson.com. Please support his efforts to expose the wealth transfer.

0:00 7.20.24 Zev Talks to James Nelson

02:24 Meet James M. Nelson: Author and Investigator

03:32 The Role of AI in Price Setting

06:41 The Impact of Data-Driven Economies

07:57 Homelessness and Rising Rental Rates

12:37 The Power of Property Management Systems

27:10 The Algorithmic Divide: Modern Segregation

27:56 The Death of the American Dream

29:01 Harlan Crow and the Real Estate Monopoly

30:19 The Legal and Ethical Quagmire

31:50 The Crow Empire's Rise and Fall

35:28 The Role of RealPage in Market Manipulation

37:15 Political Connections and Real Estate

39:14 The Impact on the Middle Class and Housing Market

43:16 The Future of American Governance

46:11 Concluding Thoughts and Call to Action

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