Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., says a recession is likely for 2024, which will create some market pain as it extinguishes "the final embers of inflation which aren't burned out yet, namely wage growth." Schutte expects the market to struggle but notes that conditions are great for fixed income, though he warns against investors hiding in the short-end of the yield curve because rates will start to change next year, and investors who are focused on making the highest yield now will wind up facing reinvestment risk once the yield curve flattens or reverses its current inversion. Meanwhile, talking technicals, Brad Lamensdorf of the Lamensdorf Market-Timing Report and the Ranger Equity Bear ETF says the market is due for "a scary moment" likely in the spring or the summer of 2024, when there is a value reset. Lamensdorf notes that "We don't need a recession to have a 20 or 25 percent correction and I think one of those probably is due next year at some point, after we get out of this seasonably-favorable period." Plus, Benjamin Bailey of the Praxis Impact Bond fund gives his take on the fixed-income market, and sustainable bond investing.

David Hay, co-chief investment officer at Evergreen Gavekal -- author of the Haymaker newsletter focused on macroeconomic research -- says that 'Pseudo prosperity is still prosperity,' and investors should like whatever they are getting from the economy now because he does not think it will last. Hay says the market "is almost all-in on Goldilocks," which will "make it hard to make money betting on the soft landing." Christopher Zook, president of CAZ Investments -- co-author of Tony Robbins' new book, "The Holy Grail of Investing" -- talks about the themes and the alternative investments that will drive the next decade or more while delivering oversized gains. Plus, in "The Financial Crunch," Cam Miller, chief revenue officer at Money Pickle, talks about how much money someone needs to have before turning to a financial adviser for help.

Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, says that he doesn't see the economy going into a recession, allowing the Federal Reserve to cut rates "at a leisurely pace" and to get through inflation-reduction with a soft landing. Gruenwald recently raised his growth projection for the economy and he says the strong economy is letting the Fed take its time in cutting rates, but that current levels of 5.25 percent are too high. He doesn't expect the central bank to cut rates below 3 percent, which he expects it to reach with a few rate cuts this year starting in June and four to five cuts next year. Larry Tentarelli, founder/chief technical strategist, Blue Chip Daily Trend Report says the market's upward trend has room to run. As a technician, Tentarelli says the most bullish signal is a market at new highs because there is no overhead resistance, and while he expects some small, normal pullbacks along the way, he expects the long-term move to be higher. Plus, David Trainer, president at New Constructs, revisits a meme stock in The Danger Zone and author Anne Lester discusses her new book, "Your Best Financial Life: Save Smart Now for the Future You Want."

Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at the Macro Institute, says that people should not expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in hopes of rescuing the economy or keeping the market rally rolling. Instead, he says the Fed tends to cut rates when things go wrong, which he expects to happen by the middle of the year, when bad economic news starts piling up. Nick is not expecting the proverbial soft landing, noting that macro indicators like the inverted yield curve and more are still working through the economic cycle and are making it that the full force of a slowdown will be felt in 2025, and that "the next seven to eight quarters will be tough especially compared to the five or six that have come before it." In "The Financial Crunch from Money Pickle," Dave Rowan, president of Rowan Financial, discusses how investors can integrate real estate and property investments into a portfolio and how "passive income" does not fully describe the role those property buyers play in their holdings. In the Market Call, Jeff Auxier of the Auxier Focus Fund, talks about buying businesses rather than stocks, focusing on analyzing what a company does to determine when the stock is presenting a real long-term value and opportunity.

Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, says that two wars have had less impact on markets that many observers have expected because the market has recognized that geopolitical events require a direct tie to earnings before they can truly dampen gains. Because of that -- but also because of issues he sees with the domestic economy -- Papic says investors who are giving up on international markets and getting their diversification by overweighting U.S. multinational stocks are making a mistake. In a wide-ranging interview, Papic notes that he expects to be bullish right up to Election Day in November, but the results of the vote -- particularly if they give either presidential candidate the control of Congress to boot -- could have broad and dramatic impacts on the market in 2025 and beyond. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors reviews the first quarter results for closed-end funds, interval funds and business-development companies, noting that it was a strong period with more than 90 percent of closed-end issues making money in the first three months of 2024, although municipal bond funds continued their lagging ways. Plus, Chuck gets to talk about his childhood fantasy car with University of Toronto professor Dimitry Anastakis, whose new book is "Dream Car: Malcolm Bricklin’s Fantastic SV1 and the End of Industrial Modernity."