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Financial Insights
Ford Financial Group
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Yield Curve Inversion and Predicting Recessions
Financial Insights
11/29/22 • 15 min
"Yield Curve Inversion Reaches New Extremes" was the eye opening headline from the Wall Street Journal this week, and it certainly grabs attention and probably leads to some investor panic. But what does "yield curve inversion" actually mean for you as an investor, and exactly which yield curve is the better predictor of recessions?
This week Brian tackles what you need to know about the yield curve, its predictive abilities, and whether investors should be concerned.
LPL Chart of the Day
Tracking 1-05348396
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Music:
Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
This week we're joined by Joe Perry, a loan officer with Precision Home Loans, who gives a honest assessment of where the housing market, mortgage rates, and housing generally stand in light of recent interest rate increases.
If you have questions for Joe from this episode, you can find him at www.therealjoeperry.com.
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Questions?
Find us at FordFG.com
Email us at info@fordfg.com
Music:
Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
Slowing Down and Going Higher? Feed Meeting Recap
Financial Insights
11/04/22 • 10 min
This week Brian discusses how the Federal Reserve (Fed) ended its two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week and the outcome was broadly in line with market expectations. As expected, the Committee raised short-term interest rates by 0.75% to take the fed funds rate to 4.0% (upper bound).
However, during the press conference, Powell suggested he sees rates higher than expected at the last forecast round in September, indicating a terminal rate above 5%. Bond markets have priced in a terminal rate slightly above 5% by the May 2023 meeting and then marginal cuts throughout the year.
LPL Chart of the Day
Tracking # 1-05343828
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Questions?
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Music:
Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
A Rebound in Growth?
Financial Insights
10/29/22 • 17 min
This week Brian talks about how, after two consecutive quarters of negative growth, the U.S. economy grew at a 2.6% annualized rate in the third quarter, driven by a resilient consumer sector. Real personal spending, roughly 70% of the economy, grew 1.4% annualized, slightly slower than the previous quarter.
LPL Chart of the Day
Tracking # 1-05341645
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Questions?
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Music:
Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
A Lost Decade for Bonds?
Financial Insights
10/18/22 • 9 min
The core bond index (as defined by the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond index) is seeing losses unlike any year since its inception. Core bonds are down nearly 16% this year and this year’s losses have wiped out five years of gains for the index. Because bonds operate differently from stocks, this week Brian reviews how long it might take to recover this year’s losses
LPL Chart of possible bond returns
Tracking ID: 1-05339279
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Questions?
Find us at FordFG.com
Email us at info@fordfg.com
Music:
Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
5 Tips to Handle Market Volatility
Financial Insights
10/11/22 • 15 min
Just like muscle fatigue is part of any intense training program, volatility is an unavoidable part of the investment process. It’s easy for investors to forget that volatility is the norm, not the exception. This week Brian addresses 5 ways to handle volatility as an investor.
Tracking ID: 1-05322459
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Questions?
Find us at FordFG.com
Email us at info@fordfg.com
Music:
Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
Casual Friday 9/30: Crashing into the End of Q3!
Financial Insights
09/30/22 • 26 min
Ryan, Brian, and Nik discuss the terrible end to the third quarter of 2022, which gave the S&P 500 its 3rd straight quarterly loss, the worst month since March 2020, and the worst September since 2008!
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Questions?
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Music:
Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source. Tracking ID:
Ford Financial Group on Facebook
Ford Financial Group on YouTube
Questions?
Find us at FordFG.com
Email us at info@fordfg.com
Music:
Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
Fed Gets Pessimistic, Yet Realistic
Financial Insights
09/29/22 • 14 min
This week Brian discusses how the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increased the target rate by 75 basis points to a 3.25% upper bound and delivered a more pessimistic outlook in their published Summary of Economic Projections.
Chart: Aggressive Hikes Taming Inflation
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Questions?
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Music:
Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source. Tracking ID: 1-05328334
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Questions?
Find us at FordFG.com
Email us at info@fordfg.com
Music:
Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
Will the Fed Push Back on Markets?
Financial Insights
08/23/22 • 11 min
Since 1978, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has played host to central bankers, policymakers, academics and economists from around the world at its annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
This year’s symposium is titled “Reassessing Constraints on the Economy,” and it takes place from Thursday to Saturday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell headlines the event.
We don’t yet know the topic of his keynote speech, but it's largely expected to give some additional clarity on how the Fed plans to keep raising short-term interest rates in an effort to get inflation under control. Whether markets believe him is a different question.
Chart: Market vs Fed Dot Plot
Chart: Easing Financial Conditions
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Questions?
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Music:
Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source. Tracking ID: 1-05317873
Ford Financial Group on Facebook
Ford Financial Group on YouTube
Questions?
Find us at FordFG.com
Email us at info@fordfg.com
Music:
Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.
Does "Seasonality" Support a December Rally?
Financial Insights
12/03/22 • 13 min
Is hope an investing strategy? No, but as November draws to a close, many investors are hoping some holiday cheer in stock markets and a potential December rally.
In this episode Brian takes a look at what clues seasonality data may give us for stock market performance in December. It turns out that while, historically, December has been a very strong month for stocks, in recent years seasonality trends have been weaker, and a December rally has often failed to appear following a difficult year for stocks.
Charts:
- December up more than any other month
- December seasonality not as strong lately
- A bad year or midterm can stifle a December rally
Tracking # 1-05349041
Ford Financial Group on Facebook
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Questions?
Find us at FordFG.com
Email us at info@fordfg.com
Music:
Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source.