FICC Focus

It does look like the Fed is nailing this soft landing, so we’re feeling quite positive around where we’re going, says James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist at Abrdn. McCann joins host and senior US and Canada rates strategy associate Will Hoffman to unpack rapidly shifting economic narratives. The pair discuss changes in the the medium-term economic outlook, as well as recent developments regarding the state of labor markets and inflation. They also dive into the implications of strikes and hurricanes on near-term economic data, in addition to the balance of risks surrounding the upcoming US election cycle.

The inflation vs. recession debate is crucial to the 2024 outlook and the path of central bank rate cuts critical for all markets, including credit. The key question is whether a huge rates rally will be boosting credit or if it needs saving from alternative sources like private credit, which has been booming. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, chief European credit strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence and Fabian Chrobog, Founding Partner and Chief Investment Officer at North Wall Capital Ltd, discuss all aspects of 2024 Outlook including central bank actions, credit conditions, yield curves, rating moves and defaults.

There's a special focus on private credit including premiums demanded over public markets, investor and issuer incentives, securitisation and the outlook for 2024 volume.

This episode was produced and edited by Victoria Garcia Loustau.

Global rate cuts seem certain, but the timing is less so. In this episode of the Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast, host Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US interest rate strategist is joined by colleague Huw Worthington, chief European rate strategist, to preview the themes and research found within their recently published deep dive on the G3+ rates markets. The report features a comprehensive review of the global sovereign debt markets that underpin the world’s financial markets. It includes proprietary models and centralized analysis of influential trends and catalysts from the BI global interest-rate strategy team across the medium to long term, along with forecasts from Bloomberg Economics. Read the report here on the Bloomberg Terminal.

Economic and monetary policy uncertainty have been among the few constants confronting credit markets throughout 2023, generating divergent views around return prospects even as high yield markets look set to exit the year largely unscathed. “I haven’t seen more dislocations than I see today,” John McClain, Portfolio Manager High Yield & Corp Credit Strategies at Brandywine Global talks about the array of options in today’s credit market. McClain joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this Credit Crunch episode of the FICC Focus podcast series for an in-depth discussion about what’s ahead for high yield, targeting esoteric risk and some of the structural changes impacting the asset class.

Municipal Performance through the first 4 months of 2023 is a semi-welcome respite from the awful 2022 that many asset managers had to contend with. Somewhat unsurprisingly, the tax-exempt market is still contending with the same challenges that somewhat define the sector such as supply and demand imbalances and municipal valuations that seem overly rich until they violently unwind in the other direction. While sole exempt investors are strapped in and along for the ride, those who live in the cross over world can maneuver more adeptly around “relative value” Joining us to explain how a true cross-over investor is eyeing the opportunity set in munis is Wesly Pate Senior Portfolio Manager at Income Re.