The New Frontier of Forecasting

Meteorologists have been forecasting the weather for centuries. Our ability to predict how hot it will be, or how much it will rain has improved a lot over time! Now, scientists are going a step further. They want to predict the impacts of extreme weather events. In other words, not the amount of rain, but what the rain will do.

This idea come from the realization that good weather forecasts or warnings are not enough to prevent impacts. People need tailored information about what to do to ensure their safety and protect their livelihoods. For example, this could be a specific warning indicating that an incoming storm will likely result in power outages in certain parts of town, flooded streets in another part of town, and will require evacuation in a particularly exposed and vulnerable area.

The podcast features Catalina Jaime, Senior Risk Advisor at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, who is writing guidelines to get all of the stakeholders on the same page on Impact-based Forecasting. We also hear from Maurine Ambani, who is working with Red Cross and Red Crescent national societies around Africa on implementing early warning and early action. This podcast is written, edited and hosted by Roop Singh.

The intro music is Welcome to the Show, and the background music is Beauty Flow, both by Kevin MacLeod and is used under a creative commons license. The podcast art is by Melinda.

You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or downloading it through your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.

References and Supplemental Materials:

• Impact-based Forecasting and Warning: Weather Ready Nations
• New guidelines on impact-based forecasting (watch out for the new guidelines, coming in a few days)